Published: January 1, 2019
designates my notes. / designates important.
Thoughts
I found this book interesting if not insightful. My Yang claims to be of the
elite class. While I can’t say for sure, I would doubt this greatly. Does he
have substation, read: millions, in the bank? Possibly, probably even, but he
is in no way a true elite in the string-pulling-oligarchical-deep-state sense.
At best I’d say he is a welcome water-carrier for the real elite in promoting
what boils down to communism. Still, his opinions do give a glimpse into some
of the upper classes’ view on the future of things like jobs and currency.
The continually book espouses, not unjustly, the merits of artificial
intelligence. All in all I would say his view is reasonable. While A.I. isn’t
going to take over, ala Mr. Musk’s terminators, it is going to slowly phase out
workers and be a continually growing stress on our modern economic systems. One
example he gives of how far A.I. has come is the A.I. symphony “Adsum” by
Iamus.
Overall I agree with the problems put forth in the book, but all in all there
are no solutions proposed. Worse, there are outright contradictions. We need
people that can take care of themselves, Yang says. Then the next sentence: we
need to government to step in and take care of the people. Which is it? Clearly
I would say the former, but I suspect the author would prefer the latter.
The silver lining is that Yang at least sees opioid addiction, suicide,
divorce, reduced childbirth, etc as economically driven. I’ll give him that.
His ‘solution’? Wealth redistribution, if not outright communism, and more
socially appropriate technology.
There is no consideration of the fact that when people don’t have money, no
matter how much tech and AI there is, business will go under. This will (as I
personally hope) lead to a death spiral and essentially force first: an
nation/global conversation between what adults may be left and second: some
sort of solutions.
Yang talks about social credits, digital even, that can create a parallel
economy. This seems to be nothing more than digital dollars, read: bitcoin, but
the big change is that they will be called social and people will be expected
to brag about how many they have. Somehow this new economy will work better
than the dollar based one, even though it will essentially function
isomorphically.
One of the more “interesting” proclamations in the book is that there has been
no inflation for the last 10 years and no nominal change in car prices since
the 70s!
The average wage in 1970s USA was a bit over $9,000. Rent? $108. A gallon of
gasoline? $0.36.
Car prices?
- New Dodge Dart: $18,098.92
- New Ford Galaxie 500: $21,675.02
- New Ford Pinto: $13,096.46
- Used 1968 Chevrolet Camaro: $15,662.53
- Used 1968 Chevrolet Impala, Sport Coupe: $16,344.99
- Used 1965 Chrysler Newport: $6,108.04
Overall the entire book seems woo-woo to me. He makes claims like, we need to
change xyz, but gives no real path to get there. Actually there is one path he
like, more government intervention.
He claims (and I agree here) that our school system is failing us. He points
out that the top universities are essentially hedge funds that happen to have
schools attached (much like GM is a now bank with a car manufacturer attached).
This I also agree with. His solution: tax them! Actually I don’t completely
disagree with this. These schools, like many of the modern churches, should not
be tax exempt. Still, I don’t think taxing these relatively few universities
(and a possibly large amount of churches) are what the solution would really
look like. Where is the mention of anything like a consumption tax?
He claims that doctors are the reason for out of control health care, but fails
to even mention insurance companies (another name for a bank). It is hard to
take him seriously when he misses such obvious (not necessarily root) causes.
At least he admits that, after the jobs start getting seriously reduced, we
can’t all be coders.
What I find almost infuriating is that there is no mention of a simple life.
Underneath each argument is always an undefined, implied material based that is
the foundation of a ‘better’ life. How many people would be quite willing to
live on a smaller, but regular, income provided they would have more time to
spend with loved one? Why do we insist on the 40 hour work week? Why do we
equate merit to hours worked or dollars gained? While I don’t claim to have
answers, these, and more, are probably questions that should be asked before we
start mucking around with solutions to problems we don’t even understand. At
the risk of sounding hippy-dippy, shouldn’t we work out what we want before we
even think about how we’ll get it?
Oh, and another, seemingly obvious thing, the most insane idea ever(TM), is
never mentioned: cut spending.
Exceptional Excerpts
We tend to use the stock market’s performance as a shorthand indicator of
national well-being. However, the median level of stock market investment is
close to zero. Only 52 percent of Americans own any stock through a stock
mutual fund or a self-directed 401(k) or IRA, and the
bottom 80 percent of Americans own only 8 percent of all stocks. Yes, the top
20 percent own 92 percent of stock market holdings.
So what’s normal? The normal American did not
graduate from college and doesn’t have an associate’s degree. He or she perhaps
attended college for one year or graduated from high school. She or he has a net
worth of approximately $36K—about $6K excluding home and vehicle equity—and
lives paycheck to paycheck. She or he has less than $500 in flexible savings
and minimal assets invested in the stock market. These are median
statistics, with 50 percent of Americans below these levels.
There is a lot of repetitive functioning in what we consider high-end
professional jobs—what I call intellectual manual labor. A doctor, lawyer,
accountant, dentist, or pharmacist will go through
years of training and then do the same thing over and over again in slightly
different variations. Much of the training is to socialize us into people who
can sit still for long periods and behave and operate consistently and
reliably. We wear uniforms—either white coats or business suits. We are
highly rewarded by the market—paid a lot—and treated with respect anddeference
for accruing our expertise and practice.
Basically, we are trained and prepped to become more
like machines. But we’ll never be as good as the real thing.
A Pew research study showed that many men are foregoing or delaying marriage
because they do not feel financially secure. The same study said that, for women, having a steady job was the single biggest factor
they were looking for in a spouse.
In 2015, husband-and-wife economic researchers Anne Case and Angus Deaton
found that mortality rates had increased sharply and
steadily for middle-aged white Americans after 1999, going up 0.5 percent per
year. They figured they must have made a mistake—it’s more or less
unheard of in a developed country to have life expectancy go down for any group
for more than a momentary blip. Said Deaton: “[W]e thought it must be wrong…
we just couldn’t believe that this could have happened, or that if it had,
someone else must have already noticed.”
As it turns out, yes, it had happened, and yes, no one had noticed. As Case
and Deaton found, suicides were way up. Overdoses from
prescription drugs were much higher. Alcoholic liver disease was
commonplace.
Case and Deaton point the finger at jobs. Deaton
explained, “[J]obs have slowly crumbled away and many more men are finding
themselves in a much more hostile labor market with lower wages, lower quality
and less permanent jobs. That’s made it harder for them to get married. They
don’t get to know their own kids. There’s a lot of social dysfunction building
up over time. There’s a sense that these people have lost this sense of status
and belonging… these are classic preconditions for suicide.” They
noted that the higher mortality rates and deaths of despair applied equally to
middle-aged men and women in their study, though men experience these at much
higher levels.
People need to take care of themselves = The government
should take care of the people.
economist Simon Kuznets, upon introducing
the concept of GDP to Congress in 1934, remarked that “economic welfare cannot
be adequately measured unless the personal distribution of income is known.
And no income measurement undertakes to estimate the reverse side of income,
that is, the intensity and unpleasantness of effort going into the earning of
income. The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a
measurement of national income as defined above.” It’s
almost like he saw income inequality and bad jobs coming.
At the high end, universities are spending a lot of money on making more
money. In 2015, a law professor pointed out that Yale spent more the previous
year on private equity managers managing its endowment $480 million—than it
spent on tuition assistance, fellowships, and prizes for students—$170 million.
This led Malcolm Gladwell to joke that Yale was a $24
billion hedge fund with a university attached to it, and that it should dump
its legacy business.
Table of Contents
- Pages numbers from the pdf.
page 10:
-
Between 2.2 and 3.1 million car, bus, and truck driving jobs in the United
States will be eliminated by the advent of self-driving vehicles. [in 10-15 years]
-
Driving a truck is the most common occupation in 29 states.
-
Automation has already eliminated about 4 million manufacturing jobs in the
United States since 2000. Instead of finding new jobs, a lot of those people
left the workforce and didn’t come back. The U.S. labor
force participation rate is now at only 62.9 percent, a rate below that of
nearly all other industrialized economies and about the same as that of El
Salvador and the Ukraine. Some of this is driven by an aging population,
which presents its own set of problems, but much of it is driven by automation
and a lower demand for labor.
-
Each 1 percent decline in the labor participation rate equates to
approximately 2.5 million Americans dropping out. The
number of working-age Americans who aren’t in the workforce has surged to a
record 95 million.
page 11:
- High rates of unemployment and underemployment are
linked to an array of social problems, including substance abuse, domestic
violence, child abuse, and depression. Today 40 percent of American children
are born outside of married households, due in large part to the crumbling
marriage rate among working-class adults, and overdoses and suicides have
overtaken auto accidents as leading causes of death. More than half of American
households already rely on the government for direct income in some
form.
Part 1: What’s Happening to Jobs?
page 24:
- Ninety-four percent of the jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were temp or
contractor jobs without benefits; people working multiple gigs to make ends
meet is increasingly the norm.
page 25:
- the major banks grew and evolved as Depression-era regulations separating
consumer lending and investment banking were abolished. Financial deregulation
started under Ronald Reagan in 1980 and culminated in the Financial Services
Modernization Act of 1999 under Bill Clinton that really set the banks loose.
page 31:
- The future is already here—it’s just unevenly distributed. —WILLIAM GIBSON
page 35:
- For average Americans with high school diplomas or some college, the median
net worth hovers around $36,000, including home equity—63.7 percent of
Americans own their home, down from a high of 69 percent in 2004. However,
their net worth goes down to only $9,000–$12,000 if you don’t include home
equity, and only $4,000–7,000 if you remove the value of their car.
page 39:
- We tend to use the stock market’s performance as a shorthand indicator of
national well-being. However, the median level of stock market investment is
close to zero. Only 52 percent of Americans own any stock through a stock
mutual fund or a self-directed 401(k) or IRA, and the
bottom 80 percent of Americans own only 8 percent of all stocks. Yes, the top
20 percent own 92 percent of stock market holdings.
page 40:
- So what’s normal? The normal American did not
graduate from college and doesn’t have an associate’s degree. He or she perhaps
attended college for one year or graduated from high school. She or he has a net
worth of approximately $36K—about $6K excluding home and vehicle equity—and
lives paycheck to paycheck. She or he has less than $500 in flexible savings
and minimal assets invested in the stock market. These are median
statistics, with 50 percent of Americans below these levels.
page 43:
-
We’ve all had crummy experiences with voice recognition software and pounded
our phone keys until we got a human on the line. But the AI experience is about
to improve to a point where we’re not going to be able to tell the difference.
Several companies right now employ a hybrid approach where voice recordings are
combined with a human in the Philippines tapping buttons so that a Filipino can
“call” you but you think you’re talking to a native speaker because you’re
hearing a prerecorded voice. This is called
accent-erasing software.
-
The year 2017 marked the beginning of what is being called the “Retail
Apocalypse.” One hundred thousand department store workers were laid off
between October 2016 and May 2017—more than all of the people employed in the
coal industry combined.
page 44:
- Among the chains that have declared bankruptcy recently are Payless (4,496
stores), BCBG (175 stores), Aeropostale (800 stores), Bebe (180 stores), and
the Limited (250 stores). As of 2017, those in danger of default include
Claire’s (2,867 stores), Gymboree (1,200 stores), Nine West (800 stores), True
Religion (900 stores)
page 47:
- Amazon doesn’t even need to make money. In its 20 years as a public company,
Amazon often has not turned a profit. A number of years ago, some financial
types noticed and shorted the stock, saying, “Amazon doesn’t make money.” In
response, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos stopped investing in anything new for a
year and ramped up profitability.
page 51:
- Starship Technologies has 20 or so robots deployed that are already learning
their local terrain in Washington, DC, which has
officially made self-driving robots legal on its sidewalks. These robots
will eliminate the need for many delivery people.
page 59:
- There is a lot of repetitive functioning in what we consider high-end
professional jobs—what I call intellectual manual labor. A doctor, lawyer,
accountant, dentist, or pharmacist will go through
years of training and then do the same thing over and over again in slightly
different variations. Much of the training is to socialize us into people who
can sit still for long periods and behave and operate consistently and
reliably. We wear uniforms—either white coats or business suits. We are
highly rewarded by the market—paid a lot—and treated with respect anddeference
for accruing our expertise and practice.
- Basically, we are trained and prepped to become more
like machines. But we’ll never be as good as the real thing.
page 61:
- IBM computer Deep Blue defeated the world’s foremost chess master in 1996
page 64:
- The first robot dental implantation—with no human intervention—just took
place in China in September 2017. The robot went in and installed two new
implants that had been printed by a 3D printer.
page 65:
-
Most people assume that humans will always have the advantage over AI when it
comes to work that requires creativity, like painting or music, and jobs that
requires nuanced, sensitive human interaction, like therapy. In fact, Google’s
neural network, a computer system modeled to “think” like a human, has produced
art that could easily be confused for a human being’s, like the work on the
next page. You can also check out a symphony online that was composed by a
software program, Iamus, which many listeners found indiscernible from a human
composition when it was performed. Google “Adsum” by Iamus and take a listen.
-
USC researchers funded by the Department of Defense in 2016 created an AI
therapist named Ellie to treat veterans for post-traumatic stress disorder
(PTSD). Ellie appears as a video avatar and provides soothing questions and
responses. Ellie measures voice tone and facial expressions to try to identify
whether a soldier needs to seek additional treatment with a human counselor.
Early research is promising and indicates that soldiers often feel more
comfortable confiding in a clearly artificial therapist than an actual human
being. Ellie is meant to be a complement to human therapists—but one can easily
imagine her checking in with patients in between appointments and taking on
more over time.
page 68:
-
Yuval Harari in Homo Deus makes the point that
our cab driver can look into the sky, contemplate the meaning of life, tear up
at the sounds of an opera, and generally do a million things that a robot
driver cannot. But most of those things don’t matter to us when we get into
the back of the cab. Oftentimes, we’d prefer to be left alone rather than make
conversation.
-
One of the common themes of the new economy is that women are better equipped
to excel in the growth areas and opportunities in a service economy, including
nurturing and teaching other people, which are among the toughest activities to
automate. Conventionally male dominated jobs like manufacturing, warehouse
shelving, and truck driving are among the easiest. I’ve heard women say, “Why
don’t men just adapt and take on more ‘feminine’ roles?”
page 73:
-
The advent of big farms, tractors, factories, assembly lines, and personal
computers, while each a very big deal for the labor market, were orders of
magnitude less revolutionary than advancements like artificial intelligence,
machine learning, self-driving vehicles, advanced robotics, smartphones,
drones, 3D printing, virtual and augmented reality, the Internet of things,
genomics, digital currencies, and nanotechnology.
-
Data is about to supplant human judgment.
page 74:
- in 1910 only 19 percent of American teenagers were in a high school, and
barely 9 percent of 18-year-olds graduated. By 1940, 73 percent of teenagers
were in high school and the median American graduated.
page 78:
- There are presently a record 95 million working-age Americans, a full 37
percent of adults, who are out of the workforce. In 2000, there were only 70
million. The change can be explained in part by demographics—higher numbers of
students and retirees—but there are still 5 million Americans out of the
workforce who would like a job right now that aren’t considered in the
unemployment rate.
Part 2: What’s Happening to Us?
page 90:
- Julie Lythcott-Haims, a dean at Stanford, wrote a book in 2015 about the
changing character of the students she was seeing, who
had gone in one generation from independent young adults to “brittle” and
“existentially impotent.” In 2014, an American College Health
Association survey of close to 100,000 college students reported that 86
percent felt overwhelmed by all they had to do, 54 percent felt overwhelming
anxiety, and 8 percent seriously considered suicide in the last 12 months.
page 97:
- Today, thanks to assortative mating in a handful of
cities, intellect, attractiveness, education, and wealth are all converging in
the same families and neighborhoods. I look at my friends’ children, and
many of them resemble unicorns: brilliant, beautiful, socially precocious
creatures who have gotten the best of all possible resources since the day they
were born. I imagine them in 10 or 15 years traveling to other parts of the
country, and I know that they are going to feel like, and be received as,
strangers in a strange land. They will have thriving online lives and not even
remember a car that didn’t drive itself. They may feel they have nothing in
common with the people before them. Their ties to the greater national fabric
will be minimal. Their empathy and desire to subsidize and address the distress
of the general public will likely be lower and lower. Yuval Harari, the Israeli scholar, suggests that “the way we
treat stupid people in the future will be the way we treat animals
today.”
page 103:
- It’s quite plausible that as steady and predictable work and income become
more and more rare, our culture is becoming dumber, more impulsive
page 108:
- The central point is this: In places where jobs disappear, society falls
apart.
page 115:
- A Pew research study showed that many men are foregoing or delaying marriage
because they do not feel financially secure. The same study said that, for women, having a steady job was the single biggest factor
they were looking for in a spouse.
page 121:
- In 2015, husband-and-wife economic researchers Anne Case and Angus Deaton
found that mortality rates had increased sharply and
steadily for middle-aged white Americans after 1999, going up 0.5 percent per
year. They figured they must have made a mistake—it’s more or less
unheard of in a developed country to have life expectancy go down for any group
for more than a momentary blip. Said Deaton: “[W]e thought it must be wrong…
we just couldn’t believe that this could have happened, or that if it had,
someone else must have already noticed.”
- As it turns out, yes, it had happened, and yes, no one had noticed. As Case
and Deaton found, suicides were way up. Overdoses from
prescription drugs were much higher. Alcoholic liver disease was
commonplace.
- Case and Deaton point the finger at jobs. Deaton
explained, “[J]obs have slowly crumbled away and many more men are finding
themselves in a much more hostile labor market with lower wages, lower quality
and less permanent jobs. That’s made it harder for them to get married. They
don’t get to know their own kids. There’s a lot of social dysfunction building
up over time. There’s a sense that these people have lost this sense of status
and belonging… these are classic preconditions for suicide.” They
noted that the higher mortality rates and deaths of despair applied equally to
middle-aged men and women in their study, though men experience these at much
higher levels.
page 122:
-
Many of the deaths are from opiate overdoses.
Approximately 59,000 Americans died of drug overdoses in 2016, up 19 percent
from the then record 52,404 reported in 2015.
-
The five states with the highest rates of death linked to drug overdoses in
2016 were West Virginia, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Ohio, and Rhode Island.
-
In 12 states there are more opioid prescriptions than there are people.
page 123:
-
A study showed that one out of every 550 patients started on opioid therapy
died of opioid-related causes a median of 2.6 years after their first opioid
prescription.
-
Ninety percent of heroin users are white.
page 125:
- One judge who administers disability decisions said that “if the American
public knew what was going on in our system, half would be outraged and the
other half would apply for benefits.”
page 129:
- As of last year, 22 percent of men between the ages of 21 and 30 with less
than a bachelor’s degree reported not working at all in the previous year—up
from only 9.5 percent in 2000.
page 130:
-
The image of legions of men in their parents’ basements playing video games
for hours on end may seem pathetic or sad. But their satisfaction level is
high. “Happiness has gone up for this group,” says Hurst
-
“There is some evidence that these young, lower-skilled men who are happy in
their 20s become much less happy in their 30s or 40s,”
page 131:
- Games have come a long way since I was a kid, and they’re about to take yet
another leap forward. Virtual reality headsets are creating experiences that
will take simulations to a whole new level. Digital entertainments will get
better and better. The analogue and the real world will become less and less
appealing. Before long, video games, virtual reality, and pornography will
merge into new forms of immersive experiences that will be more and more
compelling.
Part 3: Solutions and Human Capital
- In a future without jobs, people will need to be able to provide for
themselves and their basic needs. Eventually, the government will need to
intervene in order to prevent widespread squalor, despair, and violence. The
sooner the government acts, the more high-functioning our society will be. The
first major change would be to implement a universal basic income (UBI), which
I would call the “Freedom Dividend.”
- People need to take care of themselves = The government
should take care of the people.
page 147:
page 155:
- Inflation has been low for years, in part because technology and
globalization have been reducing the costs of many things. Even the printing of
$4 trillion in monetary easing after the financial crisis didn’t cause
meaningful inflation.
page 156:
-
Cars cost the same in nominal terms as when I was growing up
-
Cars cost the same in nominal terms as the 70s?
-
How much ever made it off the bank’s balance
sheets?
page 158:
-
To be able to fill leisure intelligently is the last product of
civilization… —BERTRAND RUSSELL
-
A man… with no means of filling up time, is as miserable out of work as a
dog on the chain. —GEORGE ORWELL
-
This is who he choses to quote? It is like a sign:
’this book is part of the oligarchy’s plan to reshape society’.
page 163:
- Digital Social Credits to create a parallel
economy.
page 165:
- voting securely in your local elections via your smartphone without any worry
of fraud.
page 166:
-
Adam Smith, the Scottish economist who wrote The Wealth of Nations in 1776,
is often regarded as the father of modern capitalism. His ideas of an invisible
hand that guides the market, division of labor, and that self interest and
competition lead to wealth creation have been so deeply internalized that today
we take most of them for granted.
-
Karl Marx published Das Kapital in 1867 and argued that capitalism contained
internal tensions that would oppress the working class, who would eventually
rise up and take control. Our perception is that capitalism—embodied by the
West and the United States—won the war of ideas by generating immense growth
and wealth and elevating the standard of living of billions of people.
page 167:
- economist Simon Kuznets, upon introducing the concept of GDP to Congress in
1934, remarked that “economic welfare cannot be adequately measured unless the
personal distribution of income is known. And no income measurement undertakes
to estimate the reverse side of income, that is, the intensity and
unpleasantness of effort going into the earning of income. The welfare of a
nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national
income as defined above.” It’s almost like he saw
income inequality and bad jobs coming.
page 172:
-
Elites in general have gotten too cozy. We all
went to the same colleges,…
-
This guy thinks he is elite?
-
Elon Musk in 2017 called for proactive regulation of AI, calling it “a
fundamental risk to the existence of civilization.” Techies don’t often call
for regulation of their own industries, so you know it must be serious.
-
Or he is getting the ball rolling on some artificial
barriers to entry.
page 175:
-
One idea is instituting an American Exchange Program or Citizenship Trip,
during which all graduating high school seniors go on a month-long trip to
several different parts of the country, hosted by host families and paid for by
the government. They would volunteer for a local organization and participate
in programming with 24 other high school graduates from diverse regions and
backgrounds. The 25 young people would get to know each other in structured yet
personal ways. It could be run by the top-rated schoolteachers and professors in
the region each August and take place at high schools or community colleges.
There would be some required programming on the basics of citizenship and civic
investment.
-
Afterward, everyone would have at least a few friends from vastly different
backgrounds.
-
What better way to build communities than showing
everyone how great moving away from home can be. Get those children away from
their families and indoctrinate them good. It is run by teachers!
-
the American Exchange Program would give people more of a reason to explore
other parts of the country and maybe even move someplace different if an
opportunity calls for it. It would open minds and hearts.
page 180:
-
The system rewards activity and output over health improvements and outcomes.
Changing these incentives is key. The most direct way to do so would be to move
toward a single-payer health care system…
-
a “Medicare-for-all” movement is currently gathering steam. There would inevitably remain a handful of private options
for the super-affluent, but most everyone would use the generalized
care.
-
Good enough for the plebs.
-
100% focus on doctors, no mention of insurance
companies pushing prices up.
page 189:
-
The trend of cohousing is increasingly popular among millennials, and there
are already 150 cohousing communities in the United States. Communal living
arrangements have been shown to increase social cohesion
-
Communism, it’ll work this time! And people are
cohousing because it is so good, not because they are broke….
page 191:
- One-third of college graduates are working in jobs that don’t require a
degree.
page 193:
- At the high end, universities are spending a lot of money on making more
money. In 2015, a law professor pointed out that Yale spent more the previous
year on private equity managers managing its endowment $480 million—than it
spent on tuition assistance, fellowships, and prizes for students—$170 million.
This led Malcolm Gladwell to joke that Yale was a $24
billion hedge fund with a university attached to it, and that it should dump
its legacy business.